What’s Next for Cannabis Under Trump’s Second Term?

Donald Trump’s return to the White House for a second term has reignited debate over the future of federal cannabis policy. Over the course of his political career, Trump’s views on marijuana have shifted. As his administration settles into 2025, early indications point to a more strategic, possibly pragmatic approach that combines economic factors with targeted reforms. For stakeholders across the cannabis and CBD industries, understanding the direction of Trump’s second-term agenda is critical to anticipating regulatory developments and preparing for what comes next.

Key Signals for 2025 and Beyond

Cannabis Rescheduling Summary: Trump has publicly supported reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, aligning with the Biden administration’s 2024 proposal and a broader bipartisan push for reform. This shift would recognize cannabis’s medical use, ease research restrictions, and allow businesses to deduct operating expenses, reducing tax burdens under IRS Code Section 280E and potentially accelerating industry growth.
State Autonomy and Legalization Summary: Trump has consistently supported a states’ rights approach to cannabis, favoring minimal federal interference in state-level legalization efforts. His endorsement of Florida’s 2024 recreational cannabis ballot, despite its failure, reinforces his position that states should lead on both medical and recreational cannabis policy.

Banking and Economic Reforms Summary: Trump supports the SAFE Banking Act, which would grant cannabis businesses access to traditional banking services. This reform aims to reduce the risks of cash-based operations, improve financial stability, and promote industry growth through safer transactions and expanded lending opportunities.
Hemp and CBD Market Stability Summary: Trump’s first-term support for the 2018 Farm Bill helped legalize industrial hemp and fuel the growth of the CBD market. As Congress debates the bill’s renewal, his continued backing could help preserve regulatory protections and sustain industry momentum, while any delays or changes may create uncertainty for farmers and producers.

What This Means for the Cannabis Industry

Trump’s evolving position suggests a pragmatic approach prioritizing economic growth and regulatory clarity over sweeping social legalization reforms. Key implications include:

Economic Opportunities:
Rescheduling and banking reforms could dramatically lower operational costs, improve access to capital, and create a more stable financial environment—paving the way for broader industry expansion, innovation, and long-term growth.
Incremental Federal Reform:
While full federal legalization remains unlikely in the near term, the Trump administration may pursue targeted reforms—such as rescheduling and expanding financial access.
Continued Uncertainty:
Although there are some encouraging signs, the cannabis industry should proceed with caution. Trump’s inconsistent record on cannabis, combined with the influence of conservative priorities in Congress, indicates that any reforms are likely to be gradual, incremental, and thoughtfully executed.
CBD Market Stability:
The renewal of the 2018 Farm Bill and the establishment of clear regulations for hemp-derived products will be crucial for the continued growth of the CBD sector. As Trump’s administration appears to support this framework, the industry can expect continued backing to preserve stability and promote long-term growth.

Trump’s second term brings a mix of opportunities and uncertainties for the cannabis industry. While full federal legalization remains unlikely, his support for incremental reforms—such as rescheduling marijuana and expanding financial access—could drive industry growth. His commitment to state autonomy ensures that legalization will largely remain a state-driven effort. However, the influence of conservative priorities and a history of mixed signals suggest that progress will be gradual. Cannabis businesses must stay adaptable as they navigate the evolving landscape under Trump’s leadership.